China forecasts auto exports above 6.8 million vehicles in 2025, industry official says
China’s auto industry appears to be heading for a record-breaking year in 2025 as domestic sales and exports surge in tandem. According to China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) deputy secretary-general Chen Xu, total vehicle sales for the year are projected to exceed 34 million units, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounting for roughly 16 million units. At the same time, CAAM believes that exports of Chinese-made cars could surpass 6.8 million units in 2025, according to Sina.
CAAM’s export forecast represents a significant increase over recent years. In 2024, exports reached 5.86 million units; in 2023, 4.91 million; and in 2022, 3.11 million. Data for the first 10 months of 2025 show exports at 5.62 million vehicles, a 15.7 per cent increase compared with the same period last year.
The growth in exports appears tied to rising overseas demand for both conventional and new-energy Chinese vehicles, as well as to expanding overseas distribution networks and supply-chain scale. The export value of Chinese vehicles reached 798.39 billion yuan (approximately USD 112.8 billion) in the first 10 months of 2025, up 14.3% year-on-year.
The domestic market remains robust, with overall output and sales volumes increasing. In the first ten months of 2025, total auto output reached nearly 27.7 million units, reflecting a 13.2 per cent increase compared with the same period last year.
With exports now accounting for a growing share of total production, Chinese automakers are consolidating their international reach at a scale unmatched by any other country. If CAAM’s full-year forecast proves accurate, China will have shipped nearly 7 million vehicles abroad in 2025. That volume would reinforce the country’s position as the world’s largest auto exporter by volume, replicating a milestone first reached in 2024.
